Wayne M. Getz - US grants

Colonies of social ants, bees, and wasps provide fascinating examples of cooperation in the animal world. However, modern evolutionary theory suggests that there should be considerable conflict over reproduction within an insect colony. In particular, there should be conflict between individual workers and the queen over male production. (Worker ants, bees, and wasps are females. In most species, workers cannot mate but can lay unfertilized eggs, which develop into males.) Theory suggests that individual workers should prefer to rear their own sons rather than their brothers, the sons of the queen, because they are more genetically related to sons than brothers. In some species of social insects, for example, bumble bees, workers produce many of the colony's males, whereas in others, for example, honey bees and yellowjacket wasps, all the males are sons of the queen. The absence of male honey bees produced by workers is thought to result from workers preventing each other from reproducing by eating each other's eggs. This "worker policing" has apparently evolved in the honey bee because the queen mates with many males. This leads to workers being more genetically related to the queen's sons than to the sons of other workers (who are mostly half-sisters), so that it is in each worker's genetic interest to stop other workers from reproducing. In contrast, bumble-bee queens mate with only one male, so that workers are more related to the sons of the workers (who are all full sisters) than to the queen's sons, and should not stop each other from reproducing. This research project will examine in more detail the mechanism of worker policing in honey bees, and also look at yellowjacket wasps to see if worker policing by differential egg removal occurs in these insects as well. One important area of research will investigate how worker honey bees can distinguish queen- from worker-laid male eggs, by looking for a queen-produced chemical (pheromone) that may give their eggs a distinctive odor. In addition, the project will quantify the rate of production of worker-laid eggs in normal bee hives, and will look at the behavior of worker bees entering cells containing male eggs to see if some workers are special "police bees."

The most important group of organisms able to control potential insect pest populations are parasitic wasps that parasitize the eggs, larvae, or pupae of their host. These parasitic wasps are the mainstay of classical biological control which has enormous potential to impact agriculture and reduce the use of pesticides worldwide. Parasitic wasps have a vast array of life histories and a unique ability to control the sex ratio of their progeny. Sex ratio biasing has a critical impact on the demography of wasp populations and their ability to compare with other wasp species and regulate host populations. This study involves developing a model of a parasitic wasp Diadegma insulare on diamondback moth which is a pest in cruciferous crops (cabbage, cauliflower,etc.) world wide. The study focuses on the influence of the quality of plants on the quality of diamondback moth larvae and how the quality of these larvae influences the demography of Diadegma, especially in terms of sex ratio biasing. The challenge of the study is to obtain a realistic model that integrates genetic and environmental components associated with sex ratio biasing in a 3- trophic level ecological interaction, and to use the model to help interpret data obtained from field and laboratory experiments. The knowledge gained could help in promoting biological control of diamondback moth.//

This international workshop will be held in Pietermaritzburg, South Africa, in July of 1995, following the World Conference on Resource Modeling, sponsored by the Resource Modeling Association (RMA). Researchers from the US, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, South Africa, Canada, Australia, Germany, and the UK will formulate scientific proposals for collaborative research in one of two areas, `Sustainability in Herbivore-Vegetation Interactions in Semi-Arid Environments` or `Freshwater Requirements for Southern African Ecosystems.` The co-organizers of this workshop include: Dr. Wayne Getz, principal investigator, University of California at Berkeley; Dr. Roland Lamberson, collaborator, Humboldt State University; Dr. Anthony Starfield, collaborator, University of Minnesota at St. Paul; Dr. Norman Owen-Smith, collaborator, University of Witswatersrand in South Africa; and Dr. John Hearne, collaborator, University of Natal in South Africa. This workshop will introduce US scientists to South African natural resource problems, and will catalyze US-South African collaboration in resource modeling. As South Africa is facing increasing pressure on its natural resources, the workshop provides a timely means to facilitate international knowledge of and access to South African resources, and to share international expertise. The NSF funding of the international travel costs will stimulate scientific collaboration among the Resource Modeling Association members and a diverse group of African and US scientists, including US women and minority scientists, South Africans from disadvantaged backgrounds, and Mozambican and Zimbabwean researchers.

9731004 Getz & Fortmann This award supports 22 participants (8 US and 14 African) in the US-Southern Africa Workshop on the Scientific Foundations of Programs for Community Based Management of Wildlife, to be held at Gwaai River, Zimbabwe, August 4-7, 1998. Additional participants include 2 from Europe, and about 40 from the Southern Africa region, including South Africa. The co-organizers are Drs. Wayne Getz and Louise Fortmann, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at the University of California, Berkeley, and Dr. David Cumming, Head of the World Wildlife Fund Program Officer in Harare, Zimbabwe. This multidisciplinary workshop will include natural and social scientists, resource managers, and policy makers. Many parts of Southern Africa are starting to use community based natural resource management (CBNRM) programs to preserve rural savanna lands as a mean of augmenting national park areas. Currently there is a great deal of variation among the sets of data collected, interpreted, and disseminated by the CBNRM programs. As a result there are no reliable regional assessments on these ecosystems, or how development and global change is affecting them. During this workshop participants will learn about CBNRM programs in Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, after which they will form working groups in the areas of: 1) environmental monitoring and evaluation, 2) software and hardware programs, and 3) community management and program evaluation. Each group will identify its database needs and requirements, and then collectively they will establish a common set of scientific protocols and software packages to be used by all CBNRM programs for the collection, interpretation, and management of data, and for program evaluation. The use of these common protocols and software packages will increase the reliability of data collections and assessments, which will enable the information to be used for a new, long-term regional data base on Southern Africa's savanna ecos ystems which are outside of the national parks--a very significant contribution to the region's scientific infrastructure. The availability of such a database will enable researchers worldwide to have access to new knowledge about the loss of biodiversity in Southern Africa. The common protocols will also be used in a SAVE GAME (Southern African Veld Ecosystems Geographic Assessment, Monitoring, & Evaluation) pilot program to provide rural Southern Africa areas with scientifically well designed CBNRM programs. This grant will support the participation of two graduate students from the United States. The Division of International Programs and the Division of Biological Infrastructure are jointly supporting this workshop.

9731004 Getz & Fortmann This award supports 22 participants (8 US and 14 African) in the US-Southern Africa Workshop on the Scientific Foundations of Programs for Community Based Management of Wildlife, to be held at Gwaai River, Zimbabwe, August 4-7, 1998. Additional participants include 2 from Europe, and about 40 from the Southern Africa region, including South Africa. The co-organizers are Drs. Wayne Getz and Louise Fortmann, Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management at the University of California, Berkeley, and Dr. David Cumming, Head of the World Wildlife Fund Program Office in Harare, Zimbabwe. This multidisciplinary workshop will include natural and social scientists, resource managers, and policy makers. Many parts of Southern Africa are starting to use community based natural resource management (CBNRM) programs to preserve rural savanna lands as a mean of augmenting national park areas. Currently there is a great deal of variation among the sets of data collected, interpreted, and disseminated by the CBNRM programs. As a result there are no reliable regional assessments on these ecosystems, or on how they are being affected by development and global change. During this workshop participants will learn about CBNRM programs in Botswana, Namibia, and Zimbabwe, after which they will form working groups in the areas of: 1) environmental monitoring and evaluation, 2) software and hardware programs, and 3) community management and program evaluation. Each group will identify its database needs and requirements, and then collectively they will establish a common set of scientific protocols and software packages to be used by all CBNRM programs for the collection, interpretation, and management of data, and for program evaluation. The use of these common protocols and software packages will increase the reliability of data collections and assessments, which will enable the information to be used for a new, long-term regional data base on Southern Africa's savanna ecos ystems which are outside of the national parks. The establishment of such a database will be a very significant contribution to the region's scientific infrastructure, and its availability will also enable researchers worldwide to have access to new knowledge about the loss of biodiversity in Southern Africa. The common protocols will also be used in a SAVE GAME (Southern African Veld Ecosystems Geographic Assessment, Monitoring, & Evaluation) pilot program to provide areas of rural Southern Africa with scientifically well designed CBNRM programs. This grant will support the participation of two graduate students from the United States. The Division of International Programs and the Division of Biological Infrastructure are jointly supporting this workshop.

Insects provide a useful model system for analyzing the sense of smell. They use their large antennae to capture airborne molecules, and the olfactory nerves to the insect brain send signals to endings in central structures called glomeruli, which have some organizational similarities to glomeruli in the olfactory central nervous system of vertebrates. It is not yet clear how information is processed by the brain to analyze the complicated spatial and temporal distribution of odor molecules captured by an olfactory organ. This project is to test a quantitative mathematical analysis of olfactory processing in insects by comparing theoretical predictions with actual experimental results from insect neurobiology. This model incorporates novel features of simultaneous encoding of quality and intensity, and of a network based on disinhibition (which has been explored in other sensory systems). Results will give insights about the relative contributions of the synaptic inputs from receptor neurons, antennal lobe neurons, and central projection neurons, as they interact. The importance of this work extends beyond insect olfaction to understanding sensory signal processing in general, with potential impact on other areas such as pest control, enhancement of fragrances and flavors, and technology of designing artificial chemical sensors.

The goal of this study is to develop a general theory of the spread and maintenance of communicable diseases in spatially heterogeneous populations. The theory will be developed and tested in the context of bovine tuberculosis (BTB) in the African buffalo population in the Kruger National Park (KNP), South Africa, as well as the spill-over of this disease to cattle and humans living on the boundaries of KNP. The study involves collecting BTB prevalence and strain data from sputum and blood samples taken from immobilized buffalo, some of which will be marked and collared for radio tracking studies of the movement of individuals between herds and the movement of herds over the landscape. The data will be incorporated into a spatially explicit and ecologically detailed predictive model that will then used to test theory and evaluate management alternatives such as vaccination, removal of infected individuals, and the maintenance of different strains of the diseases under particular treatment regimes.

The study will provide further insights into tuberculosis, which is a serious problem in humans that is exacerbated by the current AIDS epidemic in Africa and the emergence of drug resistant strains. It will also provide insights into factors controlling the spread of other communicable diseases such as HIV itself.

Abstract

Environmental chemistry is largely controlled by the interplay between microbial activity
and geochemistry. The complex nature of most communities in natural systems makes it
difficult to unravel the specific mechanisms of this interaction. A compounding factor is that most microorganisms have not been isolated, and thus their biochemistry and actual roles in geochemical cycling are largely unknown. This project will study a community at the level of its metabolic network in order to develop and test ecological models for community resilience and function. The approximately five member community is derived from a subsurface extreme acid mine drainage (AMD) site within an ore body. The environmental geochemistry is simple because the ore deposit is ~95% pyrite (FeS2), and receives minimal inputs of fixed carbon and nitrogen. Energy is supplied to autotrophs from only two sources: aerobic iron and sulfur oxidation. These and other characteristics make the system tractable to bioreactor experiments and modeling that can document ecosystem structure and function.

Two groups of hypotheses based on established ecological principles will be tested. First, microorganisms responsible for nitrogen fixation and oxidation of elemental sulfur are hypothesized to be keystone species because their impact on the community is disproportionate to their abundance. Perturbation studies will be used to test this hypothesis. Second, iron-oxidizing organisms are hypothesized to be adapted to higher pH conditions. Microbes colonize pyrite surfaces, and through a series of species succession events, lead to a climax community at an optimal low pH (facilitative succession). The identity and metabolic characteristics of early to late colonizers in bioreactor communities will be determined in a series of eight washout-perturbation treatments in order to test this hypothesis. The central product of this study will be a genome-enabled elucidation of the metabolic pathways that regulate and determine survival of individual species and the community. Genome data and gene expression will be analyzed to identify and monitor activity of genes responsible for oxidation of ferrous iron (the primary sulfide oxidant) and sulfur (the key acid generating reaction), and CO2 and nitrogen fixation. Metaphysiological trophic models will be developed to describe the system and test hypotheses. This modeling technique is particularly adept at handling non-linearities in complex systems. Outcomes will include the first tests of ecological theories of succession and species interactions with genetic-level resolution, and students trained in the development of new approaches to ecology.

mathematical model; model design /development; HIV infections; intravenous drug abuse; evolution; AIDS vaccines; high risk behavior /lifestyle; pathologic process; disease outbreaks; drug resistance; active immunization; virulence; behavior modification; human data; computer simulation;

[unreadable] DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): In the study of environmentally transmitted diseases, taking an ecological approach can dramatically increase our understanding of the dynamics of such diseases (e.g. cholera"). In this proposal, we develop a modeling framework for the environmentally transmitted pathogen, Bacillus anthracis, the causative agent of anthrax, a deadly disease that affects mammals worldwide. We will explore this pathogen's survival in the environment, test hypothesized factors that may affect disease dynamics and integrate this knowledge using statistical and dynamical modeling techniques through the following Research Components (RC). RC 1. Spores in the environment. We will study carcasses as a source of spores in the environment and determine the role of scavengers in spreading or removing spores by experimentally excluding scavengers from carcasses. At scavenger latrines and control sites, we will use microarrays to determine the structure of the soil microbial community, including B. anthracis and characterize any changes that may contribute to the seasonality of anthrax epizootics. We will determine whether a native grass promotes replication of B, anthracis in the soil in a manipulative field experiment. RC 2. Pathogen genetics. We will study how pathogen strain type contributes to disease dynamics by strain typing anthrax-positive carcasses of any host species that were collected in the past 28 years. Using archival samples, we will determine whether different strains contribute to differences in the timing of anthrax outbreaks in Burchell's zebra (Equus burchellf) and elephant (Loxodonta africana). RC 3. Heterogeneity in host susceptibility. We will determine whether the primary host in our system, zebra, exhibit variation in genes that may influence susceptibility to B. anthracis. We will examine intra- and interannual changes in host condition and immunity in relation to potential stressors including nutrition, reproduction and lactation cycles and gastrointestinal (GI) parasite infections to determine if seasonal nadirs in host condition correlate with timing of anthrax outbreaks. RC 4. Host-pathogen dynamics and management interventions. We will integrate data arising from RC 1-3 into models describing the spatiotemporal dynamics of host populations and of B. anthracis in the environment and combine these factors in a predictive model of host susceptibility and anthrax occurrence. We will perform model fitting and selection and explore the theoretical efficacy of commonly enacted control measures. [unreadable] [unreadable] [unreadable]

Anthrax (Bacillus anthracis) is a highly infectious disease that threatens human health, agricultural production, and biodiversity. It occurs in episodic outbreaks in wild and domestic hoofed herbivores, and also in carnivores and humans. Genetic studies suggest anthrax originated in sub-Saharan Africa and then spread globally. Today, the number and severity of anthrax outbreaks in human, livestock, and wildlife populations have increased worldwide. Still, little is known about what drives the observed patterns of anthrax occurrence across populations and species. A host's ability to respond to bacterial infection depends on inherent genetic factors. Genetic diversity may be particularly important in functional genes, such as those involved in general immune response or specific to anthrax. The goal of this research is to investigate how variation in host genes is related to anthrax susceptibility within and across African wildlife species. The researchers will assess genetic data from a spectrum of resistant to susceptible host species in Etosha National Parka, Namibia, particularly the diversity in the Major Histocompatibility Complex and of an anthrax toxin receptor gene that plays a critical role in anthrax progression.

The broader impacts of this research relate to the fact that managing anthrax is a global priority and the results of this work could greatly improve local control efforts in Namibia and other regions of the world. Further, the work will contribute to the development of a comprehensive predictive model of anthrax dynamics that can be used to evaluate management efforts related to vaccination, confinement, or culling of hosts, as well as build the research capacity of Namibian institutions.

Wildlife hunting for human consumption and use is a major threat to global biodiversity and, paradoxically, to the very people who depend on it. While fisheries research has a long history of investigating maximum sustainable yields and methods for monitoring fisheries stock population status, research in bushmeat (wild meat) sustainability and management is still relatively nascent. This project will examine wildlife utilization in the Congo Basin of Africa, which has traditionally been approached from a conservation perspective, rather than a utilitarian perspective. Wildlife populations in the Congo Basin are notoriously difficult to monitor due to remoteness and dense tropical forest canopy, precluding aerial surveys. The main objective of this research project is to determine if hunter catch-per-unit-effort indices, commonly used in fisheries management, can be used as indicators of the status of harvested wildlife populations in Central Africa. This project will test whether the harvest system for African bushmeat is influenced by factors such as gear-type, vegetation, season, and hunter experience, and will also investigate whether ancillary data of harvested population structure (e.g. age and sex) can serve as a proxy for wildlife abundance or harvested population status.

This project addresses a major gap in current management of wildlife harvesting in Central Africa, a resource that is currently under threat of unsustainable harvests. Millions of people across Africa rely on wildlife as a primary source of protein, and alternative protein sources are difficult, if not impossible, to access. Hence, it is imperative that cost-effective, technologically feasible, and socially acceptable methods for monitoring harvested wildlife populations are identified. Results from this project will be provided to stakeholders in conservation and government agencies in the Congo Basin to better inform management strategies. This project will support the doctoral dissertation research of a graduate student.

This award will provide support for the 2012 NSF-NIH-USDA Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases PI meeting in Berkeley, California. The meeting will facilitate scientific exchange by connecting investigators supported through NSF's EEID program. Each investigator will present new discoveries and receive feedback from peers. The conference will provide a venue for scientific exchange and discussion on research questions and challenges of relevance to the EEID grant program. The meeting will enhance the quality of research supported by NSF's EEID program, by promoting networking and peer review among funded investigators. It will foster productive new research collaborations among scientists in related areas of study, integrate young investigators into a research community and enrich their training, and accelerate the pace of learning, by exposing researchers to others' work.

The primary aim of the study is to understand the role that migratory birds play in spreading various disease causing agents around the world. Wildlife has been implicated as a vector, capable of transmitting, or as an environmental reservoir, capable of storing, different types of viral and bacterial pathogens. In this project, the researchers will capture, tag, collect blood and parasite samples from birds belonging to ten different species that stop over in Israel to feed and rest during migration. These birds migrate between breeding sites in Europe and Asia and overwintering sites in Africa. Individual birds will be tested for exposure to avian influenza virus and Newcastle Disease virus, the presence of salmonella bacteria, lice and ticks, and their general state-of-health will be assessed. Many of the animals will be fitted with GPS tags that record the movement and locations of individuals as they migrate, breed, and overwinter over a period of many months to several years. In addition, this study will provide new methods and tools for describing and predicting disease transmission by migrating birds. These tools will be useful both for human and livestock health, as well as for the conservation and management of wildlife. They will be made available to the ecological disease research community and for educational purposes at high school and colleges.

The scientific aim of the study is to advance knowledge of how migration impacts the evolutionary ecology of hosts and pathogens within migratory host populations and also to understand this within a community of multiple species residing in an area ephemerally used by migratory populations. This will be achieved by comparing the serological, immunological and physiological state of resident and migratory subpopulations within Israel with individuals opportunistically sampled in breeding and overwinter grounds, at sites revealed by movement information obtained from GPS and data-logging tags. These individual-health data, high resolution movement data as well as pathogen genomic data, will be analyzed to assess relationships in timing, intensity and spread of diseases within and beyond Israel. Agent-based computational models will be constructed using the Nova modeling platform and used to assess relationships among correlated variables. In addition, these models will be use to predict responses of disease systems to both land-use practices and global climate change.

Numerical projections of reliable infection and disease mortality rates within cities, counties, states, and countries, as well as identification of the factors most responsible for these rates are critical to rational management of the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. In the absence of effective therapeutics and vaccines, a deeper understanding of the impact of societal measures (distancing, contact tracing, quarantining, etc.) on local Covid-19 outbreaks are needed by administrators and healthcare professionals in making decisions that affect the tradeoff between the physical health of individuals and the economic health of communities. The aims of the proposal are twofold. First, to use cutting-edge statistical models to uncover the factors that most affect SARS-CoV-2 transmission and mortality rates. Second, to provide decisions makers with a simple-to-use, extensive instruction supported, data and scenario analysis (DASA) platform for evaluating the implications of different policy measures, including the implementation and relaxation of social distancing behavior, surveillance, contact tracing, patient isolation, and vaccination (once suitable vaccines are available). Additionally, this DASA platform will be suitable for training students at the undergraduate and graduate levels in public health and allied programs, as well as providing an analytical tool for students carrying out epidemiological research.

The epidemiological model that underpins the Numerus Model Builder DASA Covid-19 platform includes modifications of the standard SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed/Latent, Infectious, Recovered) formulation to incorporate an explicit contact (C) class, as well as dividing infectious individuals into pre/asymptomatic (A) and symptomatic infectious (I) disease states to yield a SCLAIV model (where V refers to naturally vaccinated/recovered class). Individuals in the C class can either thwart (return to the S class) or succumb to (move onto the L=E class) pathogen invasion after making contact with the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen. The formulation also includes a parallel series of Sr, Cr, Lr, Ar, Ir and Vr classes that correspond to individuals moving into these reduced-exposure SCLAIV-response classes at rates determined by the driving actions of Covid-19 policy measures that have been put in place. The values of the SCLAIV+reponse model parameters are influenced by various factors that will be identified using statistical machine learning methods. In particular, ?superlearners? that are a mix of parametric and nonparametric ensemble machine learning methods will be used to identify the factors responsible for observed spatio-temporal patterns across different, regional Covid-19 outbreaks, using appropriate data scraped from the worldwide web. This RAPID award is made by the Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Disease Program in the Division of Environmental Bioloy, using funds from the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security (CARES) Act.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.