Roxane C. Silver - US grants

9403386 SILVER Abstract Although a great deal of research has addressed how people cope with traumatic life expreiences, little is known about the interaction and development of cognitive, social, and emotional responses to trauma over time. This research will document the variation in early response to a traumatic event and identify the early predictors of long-term adjustment to trauma. Victims of the Southern California firestorm in Laguna Beach and Malibu were interviewed within 48 hours of their return to their homes post-evacuation. Three follow-up assessments of the participants will be conducted, with the final data to be collected 6 months post-trauma. This research will represent the first attempt to recruit and follow disaster victims longitudinally. The findings of this study will contribute to a current on-going debate about patterns of coping with traumatic life events.

A large amount of past research has examined how people respond to traumatic life experiences. However, little is known about how cognitive, social, and emotional responses to trauma interact and develop over time. In addition, very few studies have looked at how adolescents cope with traumatic events, and almost no research has investigated the similarities and differences among family members who are experiencing the same traumatic event. The recent Littleton, Colorado school shooting offers a compelling and important context in which to study these issues. The goal of this small grant for exploratory research is to document the variability in acute responses to a community trauma among both adolescents and adults, in an effort to identify early predictors of long-term adjustment to trauma. Residents of the Littleton community will be interviewed immediately, with follow-up assessments to occur 6 months and 18 months later. Results from this study will have both theoretical and practical utility in understanding the psychological aftermath of human-made as well as natural disasters.

At some point in their lives, most people encounter stressful events that can have a major impact on the course and direction of their lives. However, after decades of research, it is clear that many assumptions held in society about how individuals respond to life's traumas have not survived empirical test. For example, in contrast to widely held myths about the coping process, the data fail to demonstrate universal reactions to stressful life events. Despite the popular belief that emotional and cognitive responses to stress follow a clear pattern, there is little empirical evidence for an orderly sequence of stages of response. Understanding the general process of coping will be enhanced through examination of group and individual differences, as well as similarities, in response to a variety of negative life experiences.

The principal investigator started a longitudinal investigation of early emotional, cognitive, and social responses to the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. Using an anonymous Web-based survey methodology, stress and coping data were collected from a large nationally representative sample of adults and adolescent/parent dyads (with an over-sampling from 4 cities that have experienced community-based trauma: New York City, Oklahoma City, Miami, and Littleton, CO) at 9-14 days, two months, and six months following September 11. This project continues the prospective study, following the sample with four specific aims: 1) To investigate the psychological and social processes that help explain individual differences in response to a national traumatic event; 2) To identify early predictors of long-term adjustment to both the 9/11 attacks and subsequent events that may occur; 3) To compare responses to the 9/11 events among individuals who have previously experienced a traumatic event (either personally or in their communities) with those who have not previously encountered trauma; and 4) To investigate prospectively the psychological and social processes that help explain variation in response to various stressful life events more generally.

The unparalleled nationwide impact of the September 11th attacks, coupled with the large and representative nature of the existing national sample and the early collection of emotional, cognitive and social responses to these events, provides a remarkable opportunity to examine longitudinally how individuals and communities respond to stressful life events more generally. Such an examination can be conducted without several specific methodological limitations that have plagued prior research (e.g., small or demographically homogenous samples). Information collected in this effort can illuminate the coping process more generally so as to advance future conceptual work in this area. Moreover, it can further the understanding of the unique needs of traumatized individuals and provide information to help identify individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties. With these data in hand, educational and intervention efforts that are designed and implemented among health care professionals and the community at large can be better informed, more cost-effective and more sensitive to the needs of the populace.

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 were unprecedented in their scope and traumatic impact. For this reason, little is known about the variety of responses that can be expected among residents of the United States. As the effects of the trauma spread through the country, scientists and mental health professionals have little information to use in predicting adjustment over time. This project will provide such data. The research examines some of the psychological consequences of the terrorist attacks by continuing to follow and interview a sample of respondents who were initially questioned soon after September 11 and again in November, 2001. It is expected that information collected in this effort will illuminate coping processes so that future intervention efforts can be better informed, more cost-effective and more sensitive to the needs of the United States populace.

Societal Implications of Individual Differences in Response to Turbulence:
The Case of Terrorism

Roxane Cohen Silver, PhD, Principal Investigator, University of California, Irvine
Richard Matthew, PhD, Co-Principal Investigator, University of California, Irvine
George Shambaugh, PhD, Co-Principal Investigator, Georgetown University

Abstract

The final decades of the twentieth century witnessed a dramatic upsurge in the pace and scale of technological innovation, economic globalization, environmental change and political transformation. The impacts of these processes are varied and complex. On many fronts--from literacy to life expectancy--humankind has experienced remarkable and well-documented gains. But our interconnected and rapidly changing world is also being challenged by an expanding list of transnational threats such as climate change, infectious disease and global terrorism.

Political scientists are working to understand how these global threats are affecting democratic values, institutions, and practices. Social psychologists are studying the range of responses traumatic events elicit among individuals within a society. It is important to weave these two strands of research together to investigate the extent to which traumatic events and perceptions of global threats may evoke different political responses that in aggregate can influence democratic values, institutions and practices. We will bring our two fields together by studying how an individual's age and age cohort influences his or her responses to terrorism and other security threats and the perceived likelihood of future threats. Because the United States is aging at a time of great turbulence in the global security landscape, it is important to consider how this phenomenon influences our country's support for the use of force, conscription, and many other security-related issues. It also raises important general questions about issues such as trust in government, agenda setting and policy formulation in an aging democracy.

In collaboration with a Web-based survey research company, we will collect data from a nationally representative longitudinal panel of 1500 adults at three waves.. The specific aims of this research are to explore the relationships among (a) aging and age cohorts; (b) individual interpretations of and responses to security-relevant forms of global turbulence and transformation; and (c) social and political outcomes such as changes in support for or protest against the use of force abroad, attitudes towards surveillance at home, and one's level of trust in government. We will use the threat of transnational terrorism as the primary example of global turbulence and transformation, but we believe the findings generated by our research are equally relevant to issues such as infectious disease, severe weather events, and transnational crime.

The recent bombing at the finish line of the Boston Marathon on April 15, 2013 was the first large scale terror attack on US soil since September 11, 2001. Dual bombs were detonated on a symbolic target; over 25,000 runners participated in the marathon from around the US and the world; thousands more watched from the streets. Three individuals lost their lives in the bombings, dozens more lost their limbs, and hundreds were maimed and injured; thousands of friends and family members of runners were also affected. Reporters' and spectators' cameras filmed the mayhem and over the next weeks these images were shown repeatedly in both traditional and social media around the world. The city of Boston was locked down as the perpetrators were chased.

Dr. Roxane Silver (University of California-Irvine) and her team will conduct a study to examine the national impact of the Boston Marathon bombings. To do so, they will work in collaboration with a Web-based survey research firm that has recruited a nationally representative panel of individuals for online data collection. They will collect data from 4100 individuals following the Boston Marathon bombings, including a representative sample of 800 Boston residents, 800 New York residents, and a nationally representative comparison sample (N=2500). Data collection will start within two weeks of the bombings and ten days after the Boston lockdown and subsequent death and capture of the alleged bombers. Respondents will complete assessments of acute stress response, as well as report the degree of exposure (direct and media) to the bombings, their aftermath, and other recent major collective traumas (e.g., Superstorm Sandy, the Sandy Hook Elementary School shootings).

The specific aims of this research are: 1) to investigate the psychological and social processes that help explain individual differences in response to a national traumatic event (i.e., the Boston Marathon bombings); 2) to compare responses to the Boston Marathon bombings among individuals who have directly experienced prior collective traumas (e.g., 9/11, Superstorm Sandy, the Sandy Hook School shootings) to individuals who have not directly experienced such events in the past; and 3) to explore the role of traditional and social media exposure in explaining acute stress responses.

A terrorist attack psychologically targets an entire population, not merely those in physical proximity to the attack. Most research on reactions to traumatic events, disasters, and mass-murders has addressed the impact on those directly affected; the psychological consequences for individuals beyond the immediate community where the event occurs are largely unexplored. Information collected in this research will further an understanding of the unique needs of individuals traumatized by terrorism (directly or via the media), and provide information to help identify those at risk for subsequent difficulties following major traumatic events. This study may help policymakers, service providers, and the community at large design educational and intervention efforts that are more cost-effective and more sensitive to the needs of the populace.

The diagnosis and Ebola-related death of a Liberian man on US soil in October, and the subsequent diagnosis of an Ebola infection of two nurses who treated him in Dallas, Texas, made Ebola the most closely followed news story in the US in October, 2014, with much media attention focused on claims of ?Ebola hysteria.? Because Ebola is rare, most Americans have learned about it exclusively from traditional (e.g., TV, radio) and social (e.g., Facebook, Twitter) media sources. Yet, media-based information varies in accuracy and tone regarding how the disease is spread, the numbers of cases and deaths, and the gruesome way its victims die. If media communications fail to address the informational and emotional needs of the populace, they may fail to help -- or even make matters worse -- by undermining the trust between citizens and authorities and increasing public anxiety and complacency. This research examines the efficacy of widespread Ebola-related media coverage in providing information that people need to understand Ebola-related threats. The research team assesses how this media coverage is linked to Ebola-related stress response, and how cognitive and emotional factors combine to shape risk assessments, behavioral responses, and mental health outcomes as this public health crisis unfolds. In ongoing research, the team has surveyed a nationally representative sample of individuals three times over the 18 months since the Boston Marathon Bombings (BMB). The sample includes a nationally representative sample of adults and representative subsamples of residents from metropolitan Boston and New York. This new research involves a follow-up survey on the Ebola threat with all available respondents immediately, including an examination of predictors of Ebola-related risk perceptions and stress response, controlling for pre-existing mental health status, functioning, prior trauma exposures, and media behavior. The research has three primary aims:

* Estimate Ebola-related media exposure, Ebola risk perceptions, trust in the institutions managing (and communicating about) Ebola, and behavioral and emotional responses to perceived Ebola threat.

* Investigate how type (e.g., television, Twitter, online news), amount (e.g., total hours), and nature (e.g., types of images) of Ebola-related media coverage are associated with risk perceptions, and behavioral and emotional responses (e.g., stress response, somatization).

* Investigate whether prior exposure to individual (e.g., childhood exposure to violence) and collective (e.g., the BMB, 9/11) stress are associated with Ebola-related risk perceptions and behavioral and emotional responses to the Ebola virus threat.

The significance of the research is in the examination of questions relevant to risk assessment and community response to a national crisis. The findings will (a) further our understanding of the role played by Ebola-related media coverage in risk perceptions and stress responses to the outbreak, (b) facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties following public health crises, (c) integrate the stress and coping literature with that on risk analysis and perception, and (d) help policymakers, service providers, media professionals, and educators design cost-effective, evidence-based risk communication and interventions that are sensitive to diverse needs.

This project was submitted in response to NSF 15-006 Dear Colleague Letter on the Ebola Virus.

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Community-based traumas are pandemic and recurring, profoundly taxing individual well-being and societal resources. Yet surprisingly few studies have considered how cumulative exposure to collective and individual stressors may contribute to patterns of adjustment over time. Effects of community traumas can span physical boundaries as well as temporal boundaries, with widespread media coverage transmitting a trauma's impact far beyond the directly exposed population, and challenging the traditional view of trauma exposure. Designing and implementing research on collective traumas requires overcoming formidable scientific and logistical challenges resulting from the fundamental unpredictability of these events. Previous studies that have examined adjustment to community traumas usually involve recalling events long after it occurred, making it difficult to disambiguate the effects of trauma on subsequent adjustment. To be able to draw more solid conclusions about long-term trauma reactions requires having a large sample in which information about pre-event mental and physical health, and baseline assessments of psychological responses have been collected during the acute period of trauma response. The proposed work provides such an opportunity by leveraging the investigators' previous research following a large representative sample for which health and trauma exposure was collected. As a result, the proposed work provides a remarkable opportunity to examine how individuals respond over an extended period of time to repeated direct and indirect exposure to terrorism and other individual and collective traumas.

Previous work by the investigators involved conducting a large, nationally representative longitudinal study (including oversampling of Boston and New York areas) in which individuals were surveyed immediately after a traumatic collective trauma, the Boston Marathon Bombings (BMB), and at two additional times, on the 6- and 12-month anniversaries of the BMB. The proposed work provides a unique opportunity to collect two additional waves of data on this sample in order to track ongoing direct and indirect exposure to individual and collective stressors, and their role in adjustment, over time. The research has three primary aims: 1) To investigate prospectively how different types of trauma exposure (i.e., direct vs. indirect media-based) are associated with patterns of long-term adjustment after collective stress (e.g., the BMB); 2) To investigate whether cumulative exposure to prior individual or collective traumas sensitizes individuals to or inoculates them against the negative consequences of subsequent events; and 3) To investigate prospectively the extent to which post-BMB trauma exposure (e.g., direct, indirect, individual, collective) explains predicted associations between acute BMB-related stress response and adjustment over time. This research will advance knowledge of how individuals cope with collective traumas and highly stressful events, furthering understanding of the unique needs of individuals traumatized by terrorism, both directly, and indirectly, via exposure to media coverage. Such work will provide information to help identify those at risk for subsequent difficulties following major traumatic events. Moreover, the work has important implications for informing the theory and practice of preparing people for collective traumas and helping them cope with the aftermath. These findings will also add to the foundation of knowledge for helping policymakers, service providers, and community leaders design educational and intervention efforts that are cost-effective and sensitive to the needs of the populace.

Community-based traumas are pandemic and recurring, profoundly taxing individual well-being and societal resources. Hurricane Harvey, followed by Hurricane Irma, represent stunning examples of such community-based traumas. Yet surprisingly few studies have considered how cumulative exposure to collective and individual stressors such as these may contribute to patterns of adjustment over time. The effects of community traumas can span physical boundaries as well as temporal boundaries, with widespread media coverage transmitting a trauma's impact far beyond the directly exposed population, and challenging the traditional view of trauma exposure. Designing and implementing research on collective traumas requires overcoming formidable scientific and logistical challenges resulting from the fundamental unpredictability of these events. Previous studies that have examined adjustment to community traumas usually involve recalling events long after they have occurred, making it difficult to disambiguate the effects of trauma on subsequent adjustment. Drawing more solid conclusions about long-term trauma reactions requires having a large sample in which information about pre-event mental and physical health, and baseline assessments of psychological responses have been collected during the acute period of trauma responses. The investigators in this project have been at the forefront in developing and maintaining such a sample (with prior NSF support), and are able to utilize the sample and extend data collection in the context of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma.

This project presents an unprecedented opportunity to document predictors of variability in response to Hurricanes Harvey and Irma, as well as to examine several questions relevant to risk assessment and community response to a natural disaster. The unparalleled media attention to these hurricanes, coupled with the preexisting large representative sample on which a great deal of data has been collected prospectively (with prior NSF support), provides the opportunity to examine adjustment processes, risk assessments, disaster preparedness, and behavior change without the methodological limitations that have plagued prior research (e.g., lack of pre-data, retrospective data collection, small or demographically homogeneous samples). The research will advance future conceptual work on coping with highly stressful events by (a) furthering our understanding of the extent to which traditional and non-traditional media coverage of the hurricanes may play a role in individuals' risk perceptions and acute stress responses to it; (b) providing information to facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties following potential natural disasters; (c) providing information critical to communicating to the public during large-scale threats; (d) informing intervention efforts to encourage disaster-mitigation behaviors (before, during, and after threats); and (e) explicitly integrating the stress and coping literature with the literature on decision making.

Hurricanes threaten the United States every year. Yet the 2017 and 2018 hurricane seasons were especially devastating. Different parts of the U.S. were threatened by unprecedented back-to-back Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017. Hurricanes Florence and Michael made landfall on the east coast of the U.S. within weeks of one another in 2018. In all, millions of residents were directly affected by these storms and millions more were indirectly exposed through extensive media coverage. These hurricanes represent stunning examples of repeated community-based traumas, but surprisingly few studies have considered how the cumulative exposure to collective and individual stressors such as these may contribute to patterns of adjustment over time. The effects of community traumas can also span physical boundaries as well as temporal ones, with widespread media coverage transmitting a trauma's impact far beyond the directly exposed population and challenging the traditional view of trauma exposure. Designing and implementing research on collective traumas requires overcoming significant scientific and logistical challenges resulting from the fundamental unpredictability of these events. Previous studies that have examined adjustment to community traumas usually involve recalling events long after they have occurred, making it difficult to understand the effects of trauma on subsequent adjustment. Drawing more solid conclusions about long-term trauma reactions requires having a large sample on which information about mental and physical health prior to the event is available, along with baseline assessments of psychological responses collected during the acute period of trauma responses. The investigators in this project have been developing and maintaining such a sample (with prior NSF support) and are able to utilize the preexisting sample for follow-up data collection in the context of the 2018 hurricane season.

This project will follow representative samples of over 3,000 residents of Florida, Texas and the New York metropolitan area who were surveyed in the immediate aftermath of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017. It offers an important opportunity to document predictors of variability in response to the 2018 hurricane season, as well as to examine several questions relevant to risk assessment and community response to a natural disaster. Specifically, in the immediate aftermath of the 2018 hurricane season, adjustment processes, risk assessments, disaster preparedness, and behavior change will be examined. Prior research has suffered from serious methodological limitations, including lack of pre-data, retrospective data collection, and small or demographically homogenous samples. The current project avoids these limitations by incorporating prior waves of data collection, using more contemporaneous assessments, and drawing from large and diverse samples. This research will advance future conceptual work on coping with highly stressful events in many ways. It will further our understanding of the extent to which traditional and non-traditional media coverage of hurricanes may play a role in individuals' risk perceptions and stress responses. It will provide information to facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties following potential natural disasters. It will identify information critical to communicating to the public during large-scale threats. It will inform intervention efforts to encourage disaster-mitigation behaviors (before, during, and after threats). Finally, it will advance basic knowledge by integrating the research literatures on stress and coping with important bodies of knowledge on decision making.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

In December 2019, scientists identified a novel Coronavirus (COVID-2019) that was associated with an outbreak of pneumonia in Wuhan, China and that was suspected of being zoonotic in origin. On March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a pandemic, and on March 13, 2020, U.S. President Donald Trump declared a national emergency. Because individuals can transmit the illness prior to exhibiting symptoms (i.e., an ?invisible threat?), and in the absence of a vaccine for protection, the severity of this crisis and the timing of containment in the United States is unknown. In the context of this uncertainty and ambiguity about the immediate future, the research team studies emotional (fear, worry, distress), cognitive (perceived risk), and behavioral (media use, health protective behaviors) responses to the COVID-19 outbreak and how these early responses shape outcomes over time. The scholars examine how widespread media coverage of the COVID-19 outbreak is associated with acute stress responses to the threat, its success (or failure) in affording people the information needed to understand the threat, and how cognitive and affective processes shape risk assessments, behavioral responses, and mental health outcomes. This project is unique in studying the effects of risk perceptions, health protective behaviors, and acute stress on adjustment as an ambiguous global health threat unfolds.

The research is a longitudinal study of 5,000 people from the AmeriSpeak panel, a probability-based nationally representative sample of U.S. households on whom ?baseline? mental and physical health data have been collected prior to the start of the COVID-19 threat in the U.S. Two surveys administered over the next year examine respondents? risk perceptions, fear, media use, health protective behaviors, and distress surrounding the outbreak. The sample is drawn using sample stratification to assure sample representativeness with respect to age, gender, race/ethnicity, and Census Region. For Wave 1, the drawn sample is randomly assigned to one of three nationally representative replicates (i.e., cohorts) that have non-overlapping data collection periods of 2 calendar weeks, for a total of a 6-week fielding period. Each cohort thus represents a representative sample whose interviews are generalizable to point-in-time survey estimates for the 2-week period to which the cohort is mapped. A second survey is fielded on the Wave 1 sample within the next year, as the crisis unfolds (or abates).

Overall, this study assesses risk perceptions, media use, acute stress, social norms, self- and response-efficacy, and protective behaviors at the start of an ambiguous and deadly domestic threat on a large representative sample with existing pre-threat mental and physical health data. This provides a unique opportunity to examine national responses to an ongoing public health crisis as it unfolds, producing research with both theoretical and practical importance. The team has five specific aims: 1) Estimate COVID-19-related media exposure, COVID-19 risk perceptions, trust in institutions managing (and communicating about) COVID-19, and behavioral and emotional responses to perceived COVID-19 threat; 2) Investigate how type (e.g., television, Twitter, online news), amount (e.g., total hours), and content (e.g., imagery) of COVID-19-related media coverage are associated with risk perceptions, and behavioral and emotional responses (e.g., acute stress, somatization, depression); 3) Examine how ambiguity of the COVID-19 threat and inconsistencies in official communications about this threat are associated with perceived risk, as well as emotional and behavioral responses; 4) Investigate whether prior exposure to individual (e.g., childhood violence) and collective (e.g., 9/11) stress are associated with COVID-19-related risk perceptions and behavioral and emotional responses to the COVID-19 threat; and 5) Contrast key theories of health behavior in an epidemiological sample responding to a current and evolving threat. We expect that information collected in this research will advance future conceptual work on coping with highly stressful events by furthering our understanding of the extent to which traditional and non-traditional media coverage of the Coronavirus outbreak may be affecting individuals? risk perceptions and acute stress responses to it, providing information to facilitate early identification of individuals at risk for subsequent difficulties following potential public health crises, and explicitly integrating the stress and coping literature with the literature on risk analysis and perception.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.

On February 24, 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine with hostile force, starting the most intense military conflict in Europe since World War II and leading to thousands of injuries and deaths and over 4 million Ukrainian refugees in the first month of the war. Reports of this international geopolitical crisis have instantaneously flooded traditional and social media outlets with graphic videos and images of injuries, death, and destruction – media coverage known to correlate with poor physical and mental health outcomes. But the Ukraine War is occurring in the broader context of the COVID-19 pandemic whose worldwide death toll exceeds 6 million people, escalating climate-related crises, economic volatility and inflation, race-driven social unrest, extreme partisanship, and low confidence in the scientific and social institutions tasked with protecting the public. Direct and media-based exposure to these unprecedented cascading collective traumas are likely to have profound effects on the mental and physical health of Americans. Effective management of these compounding crises requires policies that people support and public adoption of recommended behaviors.

This project assesses psychological reactions to the Ukraine War among a large probability-based nationally representative sample of over 6,500 Americans from the NORC AmeriSpeak panel. They have been surveyed three times since March 2020. Early responses and beliefs about the war in Ukraine are collected as the media transitions from heavy coverage of COVID-19 to heavy coverage of the conflict. Analyses examine how intolerance for uncertainty, emotion regulation, trust in government, and social identities may explain the association between media exposure and emotional, cognitive, and behavioral responses to the war. This study investigates how fears and worries about these multiple ongoing threats are compounding negative mental health outcomes and impacting those for whom this multiplicative effect is most detrimental. Finally, this project investigates how war-related media exposure may motivate people to take positive action (e.g., prosocial behavior) to help refugees and defend Ukraine’s democracy. Embedding this project in the larger study of the COVID-19 pandemic allows examination of national responses to compounding global crises as they evolve, producing theoretically rich research with practical importance. Results inform policy makers when communicating publicly about multiple existential threats and their potential solutions so they can better promote public well-being without inducing further worry, distress, or emotional exhaustion.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.