Luis Escobar - US grants

The Department of Experimental Statistics at Louisiana State University will purchase a large capacity workstation with fast numerical computation speed which will be dedicated to support research in applied statistics. The research is varied, reflecting the range of research interests within the Department. Escobar plans to investigate new experimental designs for an area of great interest to industry, accelerated reliability testing. LaMotte plans to study techniques for generalizing model fitting in regression analysis such that variable selection and outlier identification proceed simultaneously. Moser plans fundamental research into the nature of factor analysis, investigating robust estimation and diagnostics. The equipment will be used to support other research as CPU time permits.

This project examines disease spillover, which refers to the transmission of parasites and pathogens from one species to another. The transmission of parasites and pathogens between species is a source of infectious diseases that impact human populations, including past examples such as Ebola, SARS, and COVID-19. As a complement to theoretical models, this study focuses on the pathways that lead to spillover of rabies among populations of bats. The transmission of rabies among bats is relatively common, which enables tests of predicted spillover dynamics. The study includes sampling of bat populations in multiple locations to determine the prevalence of rabies, which potentially varies in response to multiple factors, including the genetic diversity of the respective populations. The researchers also draw on archival data to assess the probability of spillover events in relation to landscape disturbancesThe project provides training opportunities for students, and the results will be shared with diverse institutions that monitor public health and wildlife populations.

This study contributes to understandings of the risks of disease spillover between species, including humans. The research focuses on bat-borne rabies transmission, which occurs relatively frequently, permitting insights of transmission pathways that could similarly characterize other infectious pathogens. To assess the determinants of rabies transmission, the researchers use multiple methods. Blood samples collected from bats at diverse locations permit laboratory work to assess the extent of rabies infections in relation to the genetic diversity of the populations and ecological variables. The researchers also use archival records on rabies infections to assess the predictors of spillover events, such as landscape disturbance and the expectation that spillover is relatively more common near the center of the bats’ ecological niche. The study includes the development of theoretical models that reflect the inferred dynamics of spillover events over time, and these models could be applied to studies of similar pathogens. The findings inform diverse efforts to mitigate the risks of spillover events for human populations.

This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.