Chris S. Elphick - US grants

Many recreational and cultural events are based on the seasonal timing of natural events. For example, visitors flock to New England to enjoy fall leaf colors and birdwatchers congregate in May to welcome migrating birds. Seasonal timing also matters to plants and animals. To fuel their fall migrations, birds rely on calorie-rich wild fruits. Likewise, the plants that make those fruits rely on migrating birds to carry their seeds to places where they can grow into new plants. This mutually beneficial interaction works because the timing of wild fruit production matches the timing of bird migration. In many places, however, the seasonal timing of bird migration and fruit production has become misaligned. With not enough fruit to fuel their migratory flights, birds may suffer during migration. And, without birds to disperse their seeds, some plants could fail to produce the next generation. This research will measure how much fruit production and bird migration are misaligned. Investigators will study the environmental cues for fall migration and fruit production as well as the factors that control how many fruits are produced by wild plants. Members of the public will participate by providing observations on bird-fruit interactions and will learn about scientific research through field trips led by the investigators.

The relationships between environmental cues and fall seasonal events in birds and plants remain largely unexplored. This project will use multi-year, multi-species, publicly available datasets to estimate year-to-year differences in the timing of fall migration in birds and fruiting in fleshy-fruited shrubs. Two methods will be employed to determine relationships. First, researchers will use Bayesian survival models to regress data on yearly timing of migration and fruiting from the National Phenology Network and eBird, respectively, with data on environmental drivers. Second, a common garden experiment with five genera of shrubs will be set up to mechanistically determine for the first time how increased temperature, drought, and the interaction between the temperature and drought affect the timing and abundance of fruits. Results will be useful in predicting the ability of birds to migrate and fruiting-plants to disperse their seeds.

There is substantial evidence that insects are declining in both abundance and diversity across many regions of the planet. These unsustainable rates of loss will have manifold consequences for the functioning of the planet’s ecosystems. Essential ecosystem services provided by insects—pollination, litter decomposition and soil formation, pest control, and nutrient cycling — are essential for the functioning of the biosphere, food production, and human health. Estimates of global ecosystem services provided by insects and other invertebrates exceed $1 trillion annually. This five-year Research Coordination Network (RCN) will bring together scientists from around the world to study the status and trajectories of insect populations and communities globally. This network of international scientists will be tasked with determining the magnitude and patterns of decline, identifying the primary causes and consequences for ecosystem function and human welfare, and developing policy recommendations to mitigate and reverse the losses. The research will develop educational and outreach materials that will raise awareness for and appreciation of insects — the little things that run the world.<br/><br/>The RCN will unite entomologists, conservation biologists, community scientists, agriculture and forestry professionals, policy-makers, data scientists, and other stakeholders to (a) develop a community-driven approach to systematic data synthesis, (b) map and meta-analyze current knowledge of insect population and diversity trends globally, and (c) propose pathways to protect insect biodiversity. The multinational network will compile global evidence, identify data gaps, develop community-endorsed data standards for insect monitoring, assess geographic and taxonomic patterns of population change, synthesize information on principal threats, advance statistical methods to meta-analyze quantitative data relevant to insect population trends, recommend immediate and long-term strategies to protect insect biodiversity, and promote policy development to support these strategies.<br/><br/>This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.