William H. Frey II - US grants

The broad purposes of this research are (1) to assemble a set of comparably defined migration data for the largest metropolitan areas in Europe, Canada, and the U.S. (those with populations exceeding one million) that will permit an examination of migration stream components of core-periphery redistributions and metropolitan population change that occurred over the course of the 1970s, and (2) to analyze these data in order to evaluate how closely the migration stream components, their determinants and projected future consequences for large metropolitan areas in other industrialized nations, coopare with migration processes that are now affecting large metropolitan areas in the U.S. The study employs an analytic framework developed by the Principal Investigator for an earlier study of migration and redistribution in U.S. metropolitan areas. The cross-national migration data will be obtained from the censuses and population registers of the respective countries. The research will examine the validity of claims that-the post-1970 migration processes which are contributing to declining growth in large U.S. metropolitan areas and population losses in their central cities are subject to period-specific influences that are affecting similar consequences on large metropolitan areas in other developed countries.

This research proposes to evaluate the changing geographic and demographic structure of U.S. metropolitan migration over the period 1965-1990, and its impact on the populations of metropolitan areas. Its primary focus will be the analysis of internal migration and immigration streams across metropolitan areas and nonmetropolitan territory for the intervals 1965- 70, 1975-80, and 1985-90, using aggregate migration data collected by the decennial U.S. Census. For the 1975-80 and 1985-90 periods, it will examine how the migration patterns of different population subgroups, classed by education attainment, race-ethnicity and gender, respond to the changing geographic structure of metropolitan and nonmetropolitan attractions. This project brings together an interdisciplinary team of demographers, geographers, sociologists, and urban specialists. Its goal will be to show how changing aggregate migration responses have led to shifts in the social demographic structures of metropolitan areas. The underlying premise of our investigation is that the regional restructuring of the nation's metropolitan areas and regions has been occurring in concert with a more segmented migration and redistribution process that will lead to a greater polarization in the social and demographic make-up of areas.

This project will undertake an integrated set of analyses that link elderly migration to elderly population redistribution across U.S. states and metropolitan areas using 1990 census data. Its goals will be: (1) To identify the selectivity and determinants of elderly migration streams across a nation-wide spatial system, and (2) To determine the relative contribution of migration and aging-in- place for the size and composition of the elderly populations for individual areas (States and metropolitan areas). These aggregate-level analyses will utilize multivariate analyses and population projection techniques common to studies in demography, sociology, and geography. They will employ the combined 1990 census PUMS 5% and PUMSO 3% files, as well as special unsuppressed full sample migration tabulations from the 1990, 1980, and 1970 U.S. censuses. The availability of these large files, utilized with the analytic techniques discussed in this proposal, will permit us to update and integrate the findings of earlier, separate studies of elderly migration and redistribution into a single investigation.

DESCRIPTION: This project develops computer-based curriculum materials for introductory social science demographic training at high school through undergraduate levels in conjunction with, and to support the use of PDQ-Explore, a client-server data information system that provides interactive access via the Internet to a variety of census and survey data sets. The presentation of the materials is organized around the investigation of changing American society. The project builds on the Principal Investigator's substantial experience with computer-based education in demography for undergraduates and is integrated with advances in social science computing to provide exceptional access to the information contained in massive data sets. A multimedia CD-ROM containing a graphical user interface (GUI), the client software, documentation, and tutorials will be paired with workbook materials for classroom and library reference use. Queries composed using the CD-ROM interface are processed on the remote Public Data Queries, Inc. (PDQ), server within a few seconds. The tutorial materials, covering the basic skills needed for informed use of the data, analytic methods, and the software, will also be available for downloading via the World Wide Web (WWW) for other users of PDQ-Explore working in educational, commercial, and policy making environments. PROPOSED COMMERCIAL APPLICATION: Not available.

DESCRIPTION (provided by applicant): This research proposes to evaluate migration processes associated with race-ethnic redistribution -- both across and within large US metropolitan areas over the period 1975-2000 -- to detect tendencies toward greater minority dispersal. The last three decades have shown a dramatic rise in the size and diversity of the nation's race and ethnic minority populations, but they have also shown these populations to be quite unevenly distributed across metropolitan areas as well as within them. The concentration of Hispanic and Asian populations in New York, Los Angeles, and a few other large metropolitan areas is related to their recent immigrant status and attachments to co-ethnic communities in those areas. Yet, recent Census 200'0 results suggest their greater geographic dispersal. The African-American population, while less concentrated than these groups, has shown an increased tendency to relocate in the South reversing a long-standing movement in the reverse direction. Within metropolitan areas, all three groups are more concentrated in central cities and selected inner suburb communities, than non-Hispanic whites. Yet, all three have shown tendencies toward greater suburbanization, which have been more apparent in growing metropolitan areas which are attracting more minorities. The migration processes underlying these inter-metropolitan, and intra-metropolitan minority redistribution patterns will be evaluated in this study from analyses of the "residence five-years ago" question from the 1980, 1990, and 2000 US censuses of population. The study will assess the extent to which these migration processes are leading to a greater dispersion of race and ethnic minorities both across and within large metropolitan areas. This project involves a team of demographers, sociologists, and geographers as well as consultants with GIS (Geographical Information Systems) expertise to assist in classifying metropolitan areas, conducting migration modeling, and evaluating the impacts of migration processes using standard demographic methods.

ABSTRACT This renewal project builds on the successful first five years of progress during the initial award, which focused on utilizing American Community Survey (ACS) data and curricular materials to introduce demographic perspectives to undergraduates in a wide spectrum of courses. This project will make ACS-based curricular materials available to undergraduates in many undergraduate courses in order to expose them to demographic approaches as applied to different subject areas, as well as to pathways toward careers in population related fields. The ACS, as a successor to the US Census long form, provides the potential for undergraduates to explore a wide range of topics. Through this exploration, undergraduates encounter demographic perspectives, in a way that will familiarize them with frameworks, concepts and analysis techniques commonly utilized by demographers, thus exposing them to the field of demography in courses whose content they do not necessarily associate with population studies. This renewal project will update and expand the creation of data and curricular materials that are accessible to undergraduates, by working directly with undergraduate teachers in workshops and follow up webinars, and by enhancing our general use web instructional materials. Further, in response to requests by earlier participants and reviewers, it will broaden the training opportunities by introducing an advanced analysis tier of training for teachers interested in accessing ACS data with more sophisticated software and web portals. In addition, by working with graduate training population programs and the faculty teacher network, the project's website and staff will provide information to interested undergraduates about graduate training and careers in the population field and work actively to connect them with those opportunities.