Daniel Holland - US grants

The productivity and resilience of fisheries are subject to a multitude of dynamic and interrelated influences that arise from complex coupling of fish populations with the natural and human systems of which they are a part. With few exceptions, fisheries currently are managed independently, ignoring important natural and human linkages among them. The biological productivity, sustainability, and consequently human benefits of complex fishery systems may be substantially increased if these linkages are better understood and if this understanding is applied to management. The American lobster (Homarus americanus), Atlantic herring (Clupea harengus) and Northeast multispecies groundfish fisheries in the Gulf of Maine are of major ecological, economic, social, and cultural importance to the New England region. They are subject to an array of natural and human linkages that have not yet been systematically studied. This interdisciplinary research project will examine key natural and human linkages among these fisheries and integrate them into a quantitative framework, using numerical modeling to explore how improved understanding of complexity can improve sustainability and increase the flow of human benefits. An important component of the research is the translation of concepts and results into an educational program that will teach a new generation of students about the human and natural complexity of the Gulf of Maine ecosystem and create a sustained interest in marine science. The research is organized by themes. Theme 1 focuses on management of the coupled fishery system. Numerical models will be used to integrate research undertaken in themes 2,3, and 4 and to explore how information regarding interrelated natural and human processes can be used to improve management of these resources. Theme 2 will use econometric estimation and bioeconomic modeling to investigate the human connections between these fisheries that arise through movement of labor and capital between fisheries, regulatory interventions and markets for inputs and outputs, such as herring used as an input to lobster harvest. Theme 3 will synthesize and analyze existing data to characterize variability in transport and survival of early life stages to identify exogenous processes (especially climate-related processes) that drive variability in recruitment. Theme 4 will combine new field studies with analysis of existing data to examine the impact of natural and human-induced trophic interactions among lobster, herring, and groundfish on the population dynamics of these species. Theme 5 will focus on translating research findings into an interactive marine science education program, based at the Gulf of Maine Research Institute, which serves fifth and sixth graders throughout the state of Maine.

The project will make important contributions to science by improving basic understanding of the dynamic interrelationships of physical, ecological, and human-economic processes that determine the productivity and variability of the Gulf of Maine lobster, herring, and groundfish fisheries. It also will help develop concepts, research methodologies, and models relevant to fishery systems around the world. There is general agreement on the need to take an ecosystem approach to managing fisheries, but little concrete progress has been made in doing so. This project will develop concepts and methodologies needed to implement an ecosystem approach to fishery management. The project brings together a team of researchers from a broad range of disciplines and will demonstrate the benefits of an integrated interdisciplinary approach to investigating natural-human systems. The research will develop new understanding and approaches for management of important Northeast U.S. fisheries. The new information and insights will be conveyed to fishery managers through seminars, participation in the management process, and publications. The research will be coordinated with an ongoing, interactive marine education activity. A broader goal of that education program is to increase the number of students pursuing education and informed careers in the sciences by generating interest and excitement about science at a critical age. The project also will provide training for graduate students and undergraduate assistants in quantitative, multidisciplinary approaches to the study and management of coupled natural-human systems. This project is supported by an award resulting from the NSF competition focusing on the Dynamics of Coupled Natural and Human Systems.

Climate change is rapidly altering conditions in the ocean, and organisms exhibit complex responses to these changes. For many fish and invertebrates, changing temperatures are altering their characteristic spatial and seasonal distributions. Fisheries provide a two-way connection between changing ocean environments and local economies. As the distribution and abundance of species change, where, when, and how many fish are caught will change. Fisheries also respond to economic conditions or management policies, leading to feedbacks onto fish populations. In order to understand the impact of warming on fisheries ecosystems, it is essential to account for dynamical interactions between populations, fisheries, and markets. This project will develop an integrated view of the complex relationships between climate change, oceanography, ecology, and economics in a coastal marine setting. The Gulf of Maine, which includes economically valuable lobster and groundfish fisheries, provides an ideal test-bed to understand these dynamic linkages. Long-standing relationships between investigators and managers will ensure that research results are integrated into management processes to help sustain fisheries in the face of climate change. The project will train early-career scientists, postdoctoral researchers, graduate students, and undergraduate students. Through the Gulf of Maine Research Institute's LabVenture! program, the project will also develop a hands-on education module to teach Maine's 5th and 6th graders (~10,000 students/year) how computer models are used to understand complex interactions in the ocean.

The main goal of this project is to understand how changes in temperature propagate through fisheries, influencing the amount and value of the fish caught, and how fisheries respond to altered economic incentives, influencing the abundance of fish. The project will employ a multidisciplinary, multi-scale approach to test an array of oceanographic, ecological, and economic hypotheses, but the main outcome will be a dynamical model to explore the impacts of temperature trends and warm events on a linked ecological-fishery-economic system. The project will characterize spatial and temporal variability in surface and bottom temperatures in the Northwest Atlantic and Gulf of Maine, focusing on understanding the frequency and formation of large-magnitude events. The expected change in these events in the next century will be estimated using global climate model output for the region. Outputs from the temperature analysis will be used to understand how species distributions change in space and time due to warming and warm events. The impact of temperature changes on the population dynamics of lobsters and groundfish and the response of their markets to supply changes will be quantified. This information will be integrated into a model of lobster and groundfish populations, fisheries, and markets, which will be used to examine the impact of warming on the abundance of these target populations and on the economic performance of each fishery.

This project is supported under NSF's Coastal SEES (Science, Engineering and Education for Sustainability) program.

The livelihoods of fishermen who work in large marine ecosystems are heavily influenced by the variability inherent in biological and oceanic systems, as well as by the intrinsic uncertainty of economic and management structures. However, as fishermen adapt to these changes by moving across fisheries, their actions may strongly impact them and their communities, as well as influence local ecosystem dynamics. The linkages between environmental variability and ecological, economic, and social outcomes in marine ecosystems are poorly understood. Developing this knowledge is important so that regulators may adopt fisheries management approaches that allow fishermen to adapt to environmental variability while at the same time enhancing the social and economic value of fisheries and mitigating risks to both ecosystems and livelihoods. In this project, ecologists, economists and social scientists will collaborate and integrate primary survey research, modeling, and outreach to: 1) understand how environmental variability affects, and is affected by, linked social and ecological processes; 2) investigate how more integrated fisheries management can enhance social and ecological resilience; and 3) engage state and federal fisheries managers and fishing communities in the development and application of modeling approaches to better achieve ecological and social goals.

To better operationalize ecosystem-based fisheries management, the researchers will use time series approaches to identify the effects of environmental variability on fish population dynamics and spatial distributions, and to identify 'portfolios' of species whose productivity varies synchronously or asynchronously, in the context of the fisheries of the California Current marine ecosystem on the U.S. West Coast. To better understand fishermen's patterns of participation across multiple fisheries, this research will combine data from ethnographic interviews and structured surveys of fishermen, with data on fishing participation, revenues and costs, to develop an empirical model of fishing supply behavior that integrates economic motivations (e.g., profits, financial risks, and outside employment opportunities) with non-monetary considerations (e.g., psychological satisfaction from fishing or strong social ties to the fishing community). Finally, the researchers will integrate the model of fishing supply with models of the population dynamics of key fish stocks under environmental variability to create a coupled ecological-economic simulation model of West Coast fisheries. This model will be used by the researchers, in conjunction with fishery managers and stakeholders, to consider how alternative management approaches may enhance or hamper the resilience of the fishery by affecting fishermen's adaptive behavior. The research from this study would provide society benefits through providing an important tool to operationalize ecosystem-based fishery management, a stated priority for state and federal agencies.