Fred Ogden - US grants

9732402 Ogden A small exploratory grant is proposed to employ advanced state of the art remote sensing and rainfall/runoff modeling approaches to examine the meteorology, runoff and channel hydraulics of the catastrophic flood which occurred on the Spring Creek drainage on July 28, 1997 in Fort Collins, Colorado. This flood resulted in an estimated 50 to 100 million dollars of damage to Colorado State University alone. Additional damages include the devastation of two mobile homes courts, flooding of numerous homes, multiple injuries and the unfortunate deaths of five people. The proposed study is a collaborative effort between researchers at the University of Connecticut, University of Missouri, and Princeton University. The researchers involved have extensive experience in radar-rainfall estimation, hydrologic scaling, and the development of state of the art rainfall/runoff models which incorporate remotely-senses data. The objectives of this proposed study are to (1) characterize the meteorological conditions which existed on the evening of July 28 leading to over 11 inches of rainfall in less than three hours on the watershed; (2) calibrate and verify radar-rainfall estimates from the NSF-funded CSU-CHILL S-band dual-polarization research radar, and the two WSR-88D NEXRAD radars located near Denver, Colorado and Cheyenne, Wyoming, using surface recorded rainfall accumulations; (3) collect and organize watershed characteristic and flood data using GIS; (4) apply the rainfall and watershed characteristic data to recreate the runoff event using a two-dimensional, physically-based hydrologic model; and (5) compare and contrast the performance of two-dimensional runoff simulation results with a recreation of the flood using the more traditional SWMM and HEC-2 approaches for flood warning and hydrologic design. The collaborative proposers are uniquely positioned to perform this research because they immediately sought and obtained data relevant to the flood. Additionally, the c ollaborative research team has conducted a significant amount of research and development to rainfall/runoff modeling using remotely-sensed inputs. Furthermore, the two of the proposers lived in Fort Collins for many years, have extensive hydrologic contacts in the area, and are intimately familiar with the region affected by the flood. It is anticipated that the initial analysis, modeling and re-creation of the flood can be performed in less than 3 months leading to a summary report and paper on the conditions leading up to, and during the event. Additional refinement and modifications of modeling efforts will continue until funding is expended. This initial effort will garner and focus national attention on the hydrometeorological conditions which lead to this storm, and establish the capabilities of physically-based, distributed-parameter runoff models using remotely-sensed rainfall input for predicting short-duration flash floods in urban areas. This new flash-flood modeling approach to be evaluated has significant potential to reduce the risk of life and property, as well as improve the accuracy of hydrologic design in urban areas.

0003408
Torgersen

Small ponds are traditional for control of stormwater and chemical runoff. However, 'events' has been observed that result in significant internal loading, hyper-eutrophication and export of nutrients and contaminants from the ponds. We hypothesize that ordinary bacterial processes within the sediments/benthic-boundary-layer coupled with aperiodic shallow-pond-specific processes are responsible for this internal loading and downstream contamination. Thus, the coupled interactions of physics chemistry and biology in detention/retention ponds control the state of the pond more than any individual processes. This internal loading and coupled dynamics of ponds significantly alters the application of ponds in environmental engineering.
We will test hypotheses for internal loading 'events' in ponds with continuous-recording instruments (WEB-addressable) and measure the dynamic responses of ponds to internal loading 'events' (rainfall, spring, accidents, etc.) We will observe and quantify significant bulk processes involved in the removal of nutrients and contaminants from retention ponds as well as the processes that regenerate/release nutrients and metals. With monitored pond response, coupled with direct sampling and wet chemical analyses, we will define a coupled dynamic pond model.
We will develop a loading history model of ponds building upon CASC2D as a function of land use to predict when the critical lifetime of a pond has been reached and remediation is required. Development of the 1) pond-loading model and 2) pond dynamics model will contribute to the appropriate use and application of ponds as detention/retention devices in the environment. We will develop the web-addressable monitoring equipment with the possibility of creating an Instrumented Environmental Systems Laboratory for use in undergraduate teaching, honors theses and extensions to high school..
The pond loading and pond dynamics models developed from this study of two ponds can be tested with simplified studies in other ponds. Continuing projects will evaluate pond dynamics across a variety of climatic zones and land use types. The ultimate product will be a database and models that will significantly improve pond design and management.

Abstract

Energy and water are major constraints to global prosperity and directly pertinent to global climate change. Their interface is of particular relevance to Wyoming as the leading US state in the exportation of energy but having major water limitations. As a model for illustrating principles of complexity and uncertainty in science, the energy-water interface presents a relevant framework to enhance STEM learning outcomes. In addition, like many rural, frontier states, Wyoming faces distinct challenges with respect to STEM awareness, education, and career opportunities. And a significant proportion of the state population can be categorized as at-risk relative to socio-economic status and educational achievement. These challenges will be addressed through a partnership between schools, the University, and the private sector using a diverse portfolio of activities designed to increase learning outcomes of doctoral fellows, 7-10 grade students and teachers, to inform career choice through motivating STEM experiences, and to institutionalize GK12 goals in the graduate education infrastructure of UW. Specific deliverables from this project include: inquiry based curricular units, summer research experiences, diverse workshops, multiple training events, sustained cyberinfrastructure interactions, and global research opportunities. This program will promote the competitive success of the future STEM workforce by providing training in leadership, communication and project management skills for graduate fellows, by enhancing the educational pipeline through motivational awareness units, through sustained professional development of teachers, and by development of new interdisciplinary graduate programs focused on GK12 objectives.

Proposal Number: EPS-1135482

Lead Institution: Brigham Young University

Project Director: Norman Jones

Linked to: EPS-1135483 (University of Wyoming)

Proposal Title: Collaborative Research: CI-WATER, Cyberinfrastructure to Advance High Performance Water Resource Modeling


The project seeks to establish a consortium of Utah and Wyoming researchers who will acquire and develop hardware and software cyberinfrastructure (CI) to support the development and use of large-scale, high-resolution computational water resources models. These models will enable comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulations. Successful integration requires data, software, hardware, simulation models, and tools to visualize and disseminate results, as well as outreach to engage stakeholders and impart science into policy and management decisions. The project, called CI-WATER, will provide a robust and distributed CI consisting of integrated data services, modeling and visualization tools, and a comprehensive education and outreach program that can revolutionize how computer models are used to support water resources research in the Intermountain West and beyond.


Intellectual Merit: The integrated data-intensive modeling enabled by the proposed CI will lead to better understanding of coupled natural and human water resources systems and their response and sensitivity to changes across space-time scales. Advances in data and modeling systems that enhance HPC usability and access by non-HPC specialists will transform the way hydrologic knowledge is created and provide broader informatics applicability beyond the field of water resources.


Broader Impacts: The project will provide CI that improves access to data and sophisticated models, enable scientists to populate models with readily accessible data, harness HPC resources to perform multi-decadal simulations over large spatial areas with space-time resolution, and transform the way hydrologic knowledge is used in water resource planning and management. The CI enhancements will be integrated into a robust education program focused on improving cyber-literacy throughout the region

Hydrological and geochemical studies in the seasonal tropics of Panama over the past six years have revealed runoff behaviors not seen in temperate climates. This integrated international research program combines hydrological, geochemical, and geophysical measurements in the seasonal tropics including in situ data collection and analysis, enhanced by the use of natural and introduced tracers and modeling. The overall objective of this collaborative research program is to understand important runoff generating processes in the seasonal tropics and the roles of seasonal transitions and land-use changes on runoff mechanism thresholds. Hydrologic, geochemical and isotopic data collected over a range of scales will compare the virtually pristine 414 km2 old-growth Upper Rio Chagres and adjacent 330 km2 largely deforested Rio Pacora watersheds to examine land-use change effects. Different bedrock types underlay these basins, so geochemistry and isotopes will be used to assist in identifying flow paths and residence times and in model and hypothesis testing. The humid tropics cover 22% of the Earth's land surface and are home to 36% of humanity. The selected study area is representative of the humid tropics promoting transferability of the knowledge gained to a geographically large region. There are three very important questions that this research will help answer. What is the effect of deforestation or reforestation on the water yields from watersheds in the seasonal tropics? Why does runoff generation behave differently early in the rainy season than at other times of the year? How can we better predict these effects by improved hydrologic models? The Panama Canal watershed is extremely important for world commerce because the runoff from the watershed drives the Panama Canal, which is vitally important to the United States. These research results will be communicated to the Panama Canal Authority, Panamanian Universities, and broadly disseminated through peer-review articles. An international field course on tropical hydrology will be held each year of the project and will be open to qualified U.S. and Panamanian graduate and undergraduate students. The project compliments the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) Panama Canal Watershed Experiment, and STRI is a collaborator, as are the Panama Canal Authority and the Technological University of Panama.

In December, 2010, the flood of record occurred in the Panama Canal Watershed. The investigators have been working in Panama for approximately 10 years studying the hydrometeorology, hydrology, in-stream wood transport and fate and landslides, and assisting the Panama Canal Authority in setting up a real-time weather and flood forecast system. This extreme event, with a return period thought to be between 100 and 200 years, provides an excellent opportunity to create a database of hydrometeorological, hydrological, and geomorphic features associated with this flood, as well as carbon cycling by large woody debris in a tropical mountainous watershed during an extreme event. Our project consists of field collection campaign, atmospheric simulations, and database creation components. Field studies will document landslides, large woody debris accumulations, high water marks, and geomorphic changes within the 414 sq. km old-growth upper Rio Chagres watershed. The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) atmospheric model will simulate the storms that caused the floods. Rain gage data provided by the Panama Canal Authority will be used in conjunction with the WRF model output to generated ground-truthed space-time rainfall series.

Collaborations with the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (STRI) and Technological University of Panama will assist in assembling data from disparate sources not readily available. The U.S. Bureau of Reclamation is a collaborator, as they have an interest in understanding the performance of the Madden Dam, which they designed in the 1920's. During the flood of December, 2010, the Madden dam was pushed to the limits of its design, even though it was originally designed to pass a 10,000-year flood. We will explore whether land-use changes in the watershed are responsible for this change in flood frequency. The long-term historical dataset owing to the existence of the Panama Canal, in addition to the existing hydrological and hydrometorological network will make this one of the best documented extreme flood events in any tropical mountainous watershed to date. The short-term, intensive once-off field campaign will also complement project EAR-1045166 that started on May 1, 2011.

The sustainability of the Panama Canal is intricately connected with land-use. The Canal was created by damming the Chagres River, creating Lake Gatun. Each ship passing through the Canal requires release of water from Lake Gatun, so reliable operation of the Canal requires reliable runoff from the Panama Canal watershed. This is particularly true during the extended dry season, when rainfall essentially stops. Furthermore, floods during the wet season can cause closure of the Canal. The Panama Canal is undergoing a significant expansion to allow passage by larger ships. Canal operations are a vital US interest. Approximately 20 percent of trade between the U.S. and Asia passes through the Panama Canal representing five percent of global trade, and the Canal enables a large number of US jobs. However, the Canal expansion will require more water despite the new high efficiency locks. Land management in the Panama Canal Watershed influences how much and when water drains into Lake Gatun and the Canal. This project will map the flow of land use policy incentives from authorities like Panama Canal Authority, through landholder response, to changes in land use and cover, to the effects of flow into the Canal. This will help predict human and hydrological responses to policy and identify the least cost approach to providing hydrologic ecosystem services. This project includes international components conducted in the country of Panama and is funded in part with funds from NSF ISE funds.


This project will evaluate the hydrology of the Panama Canal region as a response to land use policy incentives from authorities like Panama Canal Authority, through landholder response, to changes in land use and cover, to the effects of flow into the Canal. Preliminary results suggest that land management decisions alter paths available for water to flow from the land into the Canal. These "preferential flow paths" are created by soil cracking in the dry season, and by biological factors such as plants, animals, and microbes. Conversion of grazing lands to forest seems to increase the amount of water flowing through the soil. This may increase groundwater recharge, an important source of dry season river flows. Forest land cover may reduce flooding in the wet season. The project will collect watershed-scale hydrologic data in different land uses and covers, and analyze those data to quantify the roles of deforestation and grazing on hydrologic behavior. Researchers will measure the factors affecting participation in an existing land-use incentive system to implement land management systems that may improve the flow regime to the Canal. The findings from the physical and socio-economic studies will be merged into a hydro-socio-economic model to predict future water resources availability in the Panama Canal watershed, driven by different land-management and climate scenarios.