2009 — 2013 |
Krakauer, David Sabloff, Jeremy Flack, Jessica |
N/AActivity Code Description: No activity code was retrieved: click on the grant title for more information |
Network Conflict Theory: Empirically-Based Models of Conflict Dynamics and Effective Conflict Management Strategies
This award is funded under the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (Public Law 111-5).
Game theoretic models provided a simple framework for the analysis of conflict during the cold war when the objectives of the actors (e.g. the United States and the Soviet Union) were relatively well understood. Since the end of the cold war, threats to national security have become unpredictable. In this context traditional game theory provides little insight into predicting the strategies adversaries use. One requirement of game theory that weakens its utility in the present environment of high uncertainty is that the payoffs -- the costs and benefits of particular decisions -- are assumed to be known. This assumption is problematic when little information is available about the specific goals and preferences of actors, or when these goals and preferences change frequently. A second problem is that game theory models are typically loosely based on data and therefore are not very predictive or valuable in suggesting real world interventions. Despite these limitations, no robust, alternative mathematical theory for studying conflict and predicting actor decision-making exists. Given a growing sophistication in data collection and modeling dynamical systems, this project aims to develop an empirically grounded network conflict theory. This includes new mathematical tools and models to describe and predict conflict propagation and effective conflict management.
Two types of tools will be developed in this project. One set of tools, called Inductive Game Theory (IGT), can be used to extract directly from conflict event time-series data (e.g. the sequence of bombings in Iraq and US responses, including location and severity data) the strategies adversaries are playing without having to posit payoffs or to assume stability. The second set of tools, called Conflict Immuno-Kinetics (CIK), takes as input conflict variables (rate of spread, number of actors, structure of actor interaction, etc.) and uses this information to predict which intervention strategies (e.g. pacifying interventions, policing interventions rooted in force, or sanctions) are most likely be effective given properties of the conflict itself. The CIK models that in this project are developed to study conflict at the behavioral level are inspired by the response of the immune system to pathogens.
IGT and CIK tools and models will be developed and tested using model systems of large, heterogeneous, captive primate societies. Non-human primates can provide a model system for the development and testing of these tools. Data from the Yerkes National Primate Reserach Center on the macaque genus will be used because its social organizations have properties of broad interest. These model systems possess the "minimum degree of relevant complexity" thereby ensuring that the methods, and the insights generated, can be generalized to a diverse set of conflicts including those at the human level.
|
0.915 |
2019 — 2020 |
Dunne, Jennifer (co-PI) [⬀] West, Geoffrey Krakauer, David Flack, Jessica |
N/AActivity Code Description: No activity code was retrieved: click on the grant title for more information |
Convergent Paths Toward Universality in Complex Systems
The workshop,"Convergent Paths towards Universality in Complex Systems", will bring together scientists from very diverse disciplinary backgrounds, including psychologists, physicists, ecologists, biologists, computer scientists, mathematicians, information theorists, and others to articulate a convergence approach to explore the recent discovery of universal or near-universal properties of complex systems. The two-day workshop, to be held in the Washington D.C. area will address universality in four primary areas: Information Processing and Collective Computation, Adaptive Dynamics, Scaling and Interactions and Energetics. The workshop will contribute new perspectives on universality and will be an important and necessary step in the identification of further research necessary for discovery in these converging fields. The results of this project will achieve broad impact through the workshop's contributions to increased insight into universality. Results of the workshop will be distributed broadly to a wide range of audiences through peer-reviewed reports, media announcements, and lectures at SFI's workshops and schools attended by academics, policymakers, and other stakeholders. The workshop will also be videotaped for dissemination via the SFI website and YouTube channel as well as for use in SFI sponsored training. Invited workshop participants will include a very diverse range of participants in order to achieve diversity across a number of dimensions, including faculty rank, gender, underrepresented groups and institutional diversity. This approach will facilitate the scientific and professional development of early career researchers as well as the inclusion of scientists from traditionally underrepresented groups.
The workshop will bring together research leaders across diverse disciplines for intensive discussions aimed at exploration of common mechanisms underlying a range of features of complex systems. The recent widespread adoption of information-theory, scaling theory, non-equilibrium statistical mechanics, and the theory of computation, in fields that go far beyond their disciplinary origins suggests a significant convergence that points toward universality. This meeting will focus on the most successful examples of unification and seek to explore their basis and generalization. The meeting will identify tools, models and theories that extend beyond the boundaries of single disciplines, and thereby provide significant improvements through novel approaches, to progress within any given field.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
|
0.915 |